One of the most popular questions tossed around the Cubs prospect world these days is "What's the 2015 lineup going to look like" "Which lineup is going to bring the Chicago Cubs all the glory and break the curse?" While it may not specifically be 2015, it's a fun question to bring up; albeit it's jumping the gun quite a bit. Especially since the prospect game can be pretty hard to predict at points. But nonetheless, have at it...
CF Albert Almora
Almora isn't widely regarded as a high impact talent among talent evaluators. Most see him topping out at a Role 5
player. The thing that Almora gets all his hype from is three things: his tools, his floor, his makeup. Almora has shown all five tools quite well even into his short minor league career. He doesn't really have one tool that will completely blow you away, but all of his tools grade 50 or above. That makes you a popular prospect. Almora is almost a sure thing as well, that's what I mean by his floor. At worse, Almora is going to end up as a Role 4 player. A lot of which credited to his makeup, he's a good clubhouse guy; hard worker. He's the type of guy that is going to be a leader on a major league ball club as soon as his time comes. I believe he has everything it takes to be a solid lead off man and CF for the Cubs.
SS Starlin Castro
Starlin takes a lot of heat from the fans and the media as being a poor player. They call him lazy on defense and has a poor approach at the plate. The fact of the matter is that he's a great shortstop. He has good range, quick hands, and a strong arm. He's everything you want in a starting shortstop and he's proved that, no matter what anyone else says. YES he has some things to work on, but what young player doesn't? He's going to get it done. His approach at the plate is still developing, he clearly has weaknesses in his swing along with some mechanical issues. Many of which has caused him to somewhat regress this season. But I'm no where near close to closing the book on Starlin Castro. He's young, 23 years old. That's the age that many players are just getting their cups of coffee in September or maybe even their rookie season of MLB ball. He was thrown in the deep end at a young age when he was still perfecting his craft. I'm confident he will turn it around. I also completely expect him to stay at shortstop. There has been a lot of talk about him moving off the position, but I think it's way too early to start talking like that. He's established that he can handle the shortstop position with impressive ability, and you don't just concede that to a lower minors player. He's clearly in the long term plans for the Chicago Cubs, as an extension last year shows their commitment to him.
LF Jorge Soler
Soler hit a bit of a road block this season in his development; he reaggravated a lingering stress fracture in his leg that has put him on the shelf for over two months. It was unfortunate because it seemed that he was nearing a promotion to AA Tennessee, as the promotion of Javier Baez clearly shown. Hopefully he can get a couple weeks worth of ABs here in August and continue on to the AFL where he'll face some good competition that will be good for him. As for his long term status, he's clearly in the plans for the Cubs. Right now he's in RF but I expect him to concede the position to Kris Bryant. He still has a great arm and good athleticism which will serve him great in LF. His combination of contact and power suits him well in the three spot. I see him as a .275/.340/.460, 30 HR kind of guy. Not too bad at all.
1B Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo is an obvious staple to this lineup. He's inked a contract extension this year that bought out his arb years and locks him up with the Cubs well into his prime. He slightly struggled in the first half of the season but is starting to show some progression as we head towards the latter part of the season. I don't think there's a whole lot I need to tell you about his ability as we've all seen it. His power plus his respectable approach at the plate makes him a threat in any lineup. He's currently been hitting a lot in the 3rd spot this year, however I think his lower average will knock him down to the cleanup spot in the future.
RF Kris Bryant
The Cubs first round pick in the 2013 draft is off to a hot start in the Northwest League and should start moving up the system pretty fast. Talent evaluators like Kris Bryant moving to RF. Especially since the Cubs have quite the log jam at their infield positions and Bryant has a very strong arm to serve in Right. He has power for days that should play excellent at all levels. It's just a matter of getting the bat to the ball to show that power. That fact could equal a less than stellar AVG at the major league level, maybe floating around the .250 level. But his slugging percentage should clear all those issues up and make up for a low average. He'll be player in the middle of the Cubs big league lineup. Potential Role 7 player.
3B Mike Olt
Olt was the main piece in the Matt Garza deal to the Texas Rangers. Olt has struggled this year at the AAA level which was a blessing in disguise because it actually allowed the Cubs to acquire him. As apparently they attempted to do so last year and were unsuccessful due to his good numbers. To his credit, many of his struggles early in the year were due to injury and health issues. Specifically a tear duct issue in his eye which seemed to linger quite a bit, but it seems like it's been mostly figured out. Olt can play all four corner positions but his natural position and the one he excels at is definitely the hot corner, where he provides above average fielding and a strong arm. I think if the Cubs can settle him into one position he can start to improve his hitting. As he was bouncing around the Rangers infield and outfield due to a guy named Adrian Beltre. Olt has above average power but like many power hitting prospects there are some holes in the swing. He has a good walk rate at ~13.5% but on the other side his K rate is a questionable ~26.6%. While Olt will more than likely get a call-up this September (Despite what Jed Hoyer has recently said on 'Waddle and Silvy'), the 2014 season is going to be key for Olt, especially Spring Training. Olt should have a great opportunity to win the 3B starting job out of Spring Training among competition like Luis Valbuena, Logan Watkins, Christian Villanueva, and maybe even Josh Vitters. If he can prove in 2014 that he can be a solid major league regular at the hot corner, then he's a fantastic long term candidate.
C Welington Castillo
Weli hasn't blown anybody out of the water, but he's had a respectable season as the Cub's starting backstop. While he does have his flaws such as power numbers and some framing issues, he's proved he can handle the pitching staff well and has a strong arm. I think that's all you can ask for in a starting catcher, especially with this lineup. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus said it well (paraphrasing) "[The Cubs could have me behind the plate and it wouldn't matter with that lineup]". It's also easy to pencil Castillo in as the long term catcher because the Cubs really aren't developing anyone else in the high minors. The Cubs did draft a couple catchers this year but I don't think they'll be ready by 2015 or 2016. Names like Jordan Hankins and Cael Brockmeyer. The only guys that you might even think about being catcher prospects are Chadd Krist in Daytona, or Willson Contreras in Kane County and those are stretches at best. Maybe some of those names could be his backup by then, but I don't see any of them starting for a competing team. While they could use their high number of quality assets to upgrade at the position, I still think they stick with Castillo.
2B Arismendy Alcantara
Alcantara has been the prospect that has made leaps and bounds in his game this year. He turned himself from a toolsy shortstop in the lower minors to a legit all around prospect at the AA level. He has an understandably small frame at 5-10 160 lbs but he has some pop in his swing. That power is something we all saw on national TV with his HR at the 2013 All-Star Future's Game. He has the tools to handle shortstop but a move to second makes sense for him. He's already starting to make that permanent move with the promotion of Javy Baez to AA Tennessee. Although it seems like a promotion to AAA Iowa looms for Alcantara where he could go back to seeing some time at shortstop. Jed Hoyer has been on record as being greatly impressed with Alcantara's progress which further validates my prediction that he can be the long term second basemen.
Questions? Comments? Let me know what you think.
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